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Nothing like a coherent strategy emerged from 20 years of Nato’s war in Afghanistan; at best there were  with no clear objectives or assessments of the resources needed to achieve them. But, two months after the Russian invasion, it looks very much as if the US and Nato are beginning to develop a coherent plan for Ukraine. Military strategy has been described as a . Last week, senior US and UK officials clarified the objectives – the ends.

For some time the US and Nato spoke of . On April 25, in a speech pledging to defend the “”, Lloyd Austin, the US defence secretary,  the US wanted Russia “weakened to the point that it can’t do things like invade Ukraine”. There should be no ambiguity about this. It is now US (and therefore Nato) policy to damage the Russian armed forces to a degree from which it will take a very long time to recover.

There are dangers in this strategic approach. For example, it is by no means clear that all Nato countries are entirely bought into Ukrainian (and US and UK) aims of completely restoring Ukrainian territorial integrity, let alone removing the Russian armed forces as a going concern. This provides the opportunity for Russia to open and widen rifts as the war drags on and a diplomatic settlement continues to appear remote. This was  during the far shorter and less intense Kosovo war. Then there is always the danger of Russian nuclear strikes in the event of “catastrophic” Ukrainian success – .

So much for the ends as stated. What of the means? The somewhat  Russian armed forces over the course of its misbegotten campaign have sustained many reverses. The worst by far was the passing by the US Congress of the , mandating US$33 billion (£26 billion) . Most of that help will take the form of weaponry and training to enable the Ukrainian army to destroy Russia’s military equipment and kill its soldiers.

To place this in context, the entire Russian defence budget for the current year . Some believe that the Lend-Lease Act is  by “the arsenal of democracy” to Ukraine which might encourage Russia to the negotiating table.

Battlefield success

Finally, how will the west and Ukraine achieve their objectives? The first imperative on the battlefield, of course, is to secure success in the current main effort in the Donbas region. Russia is making local gains there, but is unlikely to achieve the .

UK-based military strategist  argues that the current push is likely to “” – or run out of momentum – in the next two to three weeks. After that, it seems likely that the Russian army  to resume the offensive any time soon. This will remain so, even if Vladimir Putin announces a mass mobilisation, as some –  – believe he will.

Russia will find it very difficult to replace the troops and equipment it has lost in the short and medium terms. Indeed, British defence intelligence estimates that some of Russia’s more effective units will “”. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian army’s reserve system has allowed it to  far faster than Russia.

Bolstering Ukraine’s defences

Further, a remarkable transformation is taking place in Ukraine’s army amounting to its . As western equipment filters through to the frontline, Nato-standard weaponry and ammunition will be brought into Ukrainian service. This is of far higher quality than the mainly former Soviet weapons with which the Ukrainians have fought so capably. The longer this process continues and deepens, the worse the situation will be for the already inefficient Russian army and .

We have already seen the effect of superior Nato weapons systems  and aircraft. The die will really be cast for the Russians when they lose their . Recent transfers from Nato states, such as the Netherlands and , in addition to US guns and artillery detection radar have been . Similar processes are likely to take place with anti-aircraft weapons.

In the air itself, it is questionable whether introducing western fighter aircraft will take place in the short term, given the lead times for supply and lengthy training requirements of . It is clear though that .

In addition to guaranteeing a usually far higher quality of weaponry, commonality between Nato and Ukrainian equipment will ensure a broader set of suppliers and a . It will also enable something rarely spoken about, a systematic training regime. Extensive systems for training Ukrainian troops are being set up  and many other Nato states.

Prepare a counter-attack

All of this is likely to produce a situation, perhaps as early as June or July, when the Ukrainian army can counterattack to regain some of the ground it has lost. Some analysts, including this author, believe that a reequipped Ukrainian army may be in a position to do this very successfully indeed.

But it is important never to forget the former US secretary of defence, : “We may want a war over. We may even declare it over … But the enemy gets a vote.”

Nonetheless, as matters stand with the west having clarified its objectives and ostensibly provided the means to achieve them, the initiative is now with Ukraine’s defenders.

Frank Ledwidge is a Senior Fellow in Strategy Enterprise & Innovation in the Faculty of Business & Law.

This article is republished from  under a Creative Commons Licence. .